From the Capital One Cup final to a crunch Madrid derby, via more Stoke v Arsenal bad blood and a key St Mary's clash
• Check out all of this weekend's football fixtures, tables and more
1) Sunderland are not without a chance at Wembley
OK, so it's not the Premier League, this column's usual focus, but the Capital One Cup final is worthy of mention if only because Sunderland's hopes of emulating the heroic hat-trick of two cup final defeats and relegation achieved by Bryan Robson's Middlesbrough in 1996 will stand or fall on the outcome of this match. Considering the respective Premier League positions, personnel and recent spending of both teams, it's small wonder that Gus Poyet's side can be backed at odds of 4-1 against winning the Cup outright (they're nearly 9-1 to do so in 90 minutes) and if anything, those prizes seem a bit stingy. But City might not have it all their own way against a very poor side they've occasionally found it inexplicably difficult to beat in recent years. Sunderland have famously beaten City 1-0 in four consecutive Premier League match-ups at the Stadium of Light, although their record away from home – two hidings and a draw – is decidedly less impressive. On Thursday's Football Weekly podcast Iain Macintosh mused that the window of opportunity for catching Manchester City unawares in cup finals may have shut behind Wigan, but unconvincing recent performances against Barcelona, Stoke and Norwich suggest Sunderland, who on their day aren't a great deal worse than at least two of those teams, are not without a chance. The hapless Robbo's unfortunate record may be safe for yet another year. BG
• Jonathan Wilson: thoughts of a Sunderland win are scary
• Poyet ranks Capital One Cup success above survival
• David Conn: City have changed since last League Cup final
2) Will Atlético stop the Real juggernaut?
Meanwhile in Spain, which the eagle-eyed among you will have noticed is also not the Premier League, Atlético Madrid go toe-to-toe with their city rivals on Sunday afternoon, in a contest that ought to go a long way towards deciding who is crowned La Liga champions this season. The Real juggernaut has been roaring forward on all fronts at full throttle and surprise recent defeats for their title rivals Barcelona and Atlético have enabled Los Blancos to open a three-point lead on the pair, having been five points behind at Christmas. Following their two-legged Copa del Rey victory over Atlético, sweet and often violent revenge for a rare league reverse earlier this season, Real will be extremely confident of victory in the wake of their 6-1 midweek demolition of Schalke in the Champions League, not least because Cristiano Ronaldo returns from suspension. "Now we have no margin for error left, we cannot fail again," said the Barcelona midfielder Xavi a couple of days ago. He and his team-mates will have one eye on events at the Estadio Vicente Calderón ahead of their match against Almería later that evening. Atlético aren't the only team who would benefit from an unexpected Real defeat. BG
• Bale, Ronaldo and co tear Schalke apart in 6-1 thrashing
3) Stoke v Arsenal: more bad blood
A fixture that still cannot be played without mention of Eduardo and Aaron Ramsey, who both left the Britannia Stadium in ambulances – in 2008 and 2010 respectively – after sustaining career-threatening injuries. "We have some bad memories," was what Arsène Wenger said about the venue this week. So do Stoke, whose chairman, Peter Coates, spoke this week about "this thing with Arsenal". The clubs' relationship since those two incidents has deteriorated into a long-term and somewhat bizarre reciprocal resentment. Arsenal, having watched two players sustain horrific if accidentally inflicted broken legs on the same ground, can probably be permitted some upset. Many outsiders must, however, be bemused as to how anyone could decide that reacting a little gracelessly to two horrific leg breaks is a crime on a par with horrifically breaking two legs.
A few months after Ryan Shawcross's misjudged tackle on Ramsey – an incident for which the Stoke defender was immediately and overwhelmingly contrite – Wenger suggested of him in particular, and Stoke's muscular tactics in general, that "you cannot say it is football any more. It is more rugby than football." Stoke complained to both the Premier League and the Football Association, Tony Pulis said he was "out of order" and "very, very poor", and Shawcross added that "he's obviously got something against me, it's just weird". This week Coates harrumphed that after the tackle Shawcross had been "very badly treated" in a way that "was wholly unfair on him".
Since 2010 Wenger has occasionally hinted that he has forgiven Shawcross, saying in 2012 that "he has improved as a player and cleaned up his act", and occasionally suggested he hasn't, such as after the defender was booked for fouling Laurent Koscielny a year ago. "It looked like a red card to me," he said, "but I am maybe not completely objective when it comes to Ryan Shawcross." Ramsay of course recovered, and when he scored Arsenal's first goal in a 3-1 win over Stoke at the Emirates last September put a finger to his lips and looked at the visiting fans. As a result of which one Stoke fanzine has blamed him for "keeping this pantomime going". That fanzine article, which roared around Twitter and the like this week, concluded that Arsenal should attempt "no whining and trying to take the moral high ground when you get the kind of reception your actions have inevitably guaranteed". Add to the mix a five-year-old feud between Wenger and Mark Hughes and another bad-tempered encounter starts to appear inexplicably and regrettably inevitable. SB
• Özil will be better for his Arsenal break, insists Wenger
• Big interview: Charlie Adam finds his goalscoring boots
4) Lovren looks to lift Saints' defence against Liverpool
Mauricio Pochettino has a 100% record against Liverpool, having been responsible for Brendan Rodgers's last two home defeats in the Premier League. But if Liverpool have struggled against Southampton at Anfield of late they have fared little better away – they have won on only one of their four visits to St Mary's (losing the rest) and, before that, only one of their last four visits to the Dell. On the other hand, their strikers are not so much pulling up trees as uprooting entire forests, with Daniel Sturridge seeking a goal in his ninth successive appearance.
Dejan Lovren's return from injury offers Southampton the hope of rediscovering their early-season parsimony, the Croatian's central-defensive partnership with José Fonte having been the bedrock of those achievements but more recently endured more than a month of enforced separation. Lovren insisted this week that "we want to finish in the best position we can … I hope it will be the sixth place. That would be an amazing place for us, and we can achieve it." Impressive optimism for a man who, in nine appearances since his 89th-minute substitute cameo in Croatia's World Cup place-clinching play-off victory over Iceland in November, has tasted victory only once (in last month's narrow home win over West Brom). In 11 matches before the last international break – memorable for Saints fans also for seeing the England debuts of Adam Lallana and Jay Rodriguez – Southampton had conceded five goals at 0.45 goals per game, the best record in the league; in 16 since they have conceded 27 at 1.69 goals per game, better than only Cardiff, Fulham and (by one goal) Stoke. Saints sit six points from sixth; Lovren's return will be welcome, but it may not be enough. SB
• Manchester City join the battle to sign Southampton's Shaw
5) Matic now the main midfield man at Chelsea
No doubt about the most significant January transfer towards the top of the table: Kim Kallst … sorry, Chelsea's decision to swallow their pride and re-recruit Nemanja Matic has proven so successful that the team already looks dependent on the powerful Serbian. His performances have been so imperious that one could easily have forgotten that Chelsea were suffering from a central midfield void for at least 18 months before his arrival, but the club were given a reminder of that as it re-emerged in the second half at Galatasary on Wednesday. Matic's absence from the Champions League is one of the chief reasons why Chelsea have only a miniscule chance of winning that tournament – but his availability for the Premier League is why Chelsea are likely to remain on top of it after this round of fixtures – featuring the Blues' derby at Fulham – and perhaps until the end of the campaign. PD
• Mourinho rues lack of Chelsea killer instinct at Galatasaray
• Eto'o says he can keep scoring for Chelsea 'until I am 50'
6) Clubs who got it right in January look set to be rewarded
This season could yet be defined by who did the best business in January. Nikica Jelavic, like Shane Long, has begun his career at Hull City well, the pair injecting fresh pep and potency into the Tigers just as they were beginning to look vulnerable. Consequently, Hull now look likely to survive, a fate they would virtually secure with a victory at Newcastle, who have yet to come to terms with the loss of Yohan Cabaye. Similarly, Crystal Palace will go to Swansea intent on showing that the arrivals of Tom Ince and Joe Ledley, in particular, have given them the quality to stay afloat in the top flight. No team, of course, was more active in January than Fulham, but we have yet to see whether their shopping spree, and the subsequent appointment of Felix Magath, has not come too late to atone for a couple of seasons of under-investment and misjudgements. An improbable win over Chelsea would be just the thing to ignite new belief at Craven Cottage. PD
• You are the Ref No277: starring Fulham boss Felix Magath
7) An intriguing Sherwood v Solskjaer match-up
An interesting fixture this, featuring two teams already on their second manager of this campaign, neither of them whom seem a particularly good bet to be in charge when the next one begins. Trying to second-guess an owner as eccentric as Vincent Tan is more pointless than a tea-time TV game show hosted by Alexander Armstrong and Richard Osman, but considering his Norwegian manager has lost five and won just one of his seven Premier League matches in charge thus far, it's probably safe to assume the Malaysian was hoping for a slightly better return from the man he chose as Malky Mackay's replacement. While early defeats at the hands of West Ham, Manchester City and West Ham are excusable, the recent home drubbings at the hands of Hull City and their south Wales neighbours Swansea City will have tried the patience of even the most long-suffering Cardiff City fans.
The fledgling career of Solskjaer's Tottenham Hotspur counterpart Tim Sherwood got off to a much better start, which is no big surprise considering the vastly superior squad he inherited from André Villas-Boas. Sherwood has overseen eight victories and five defeats in his 15 games in charge, but the criticism of his lack of tactical nous has been lacerating. With Louis van Gaal, who will step down as Netherlands boss after the World Cup, having hinted that he has been approached by Tottenham with a view to taking over next season, it seems that nothing short of a fourth-place finish will keep Sherwood in his current gig and even that might not be enough. The often over-the-top praise and ridicule heaped upon Solskjaer and Sherwood respectively, considering their respective records, suggests this is a straight match-up between a tactically astute manager with very average players and a tactically naive manager with much better ones. In truth it's far more nuanced than that, but this is a contest that both men desperately need to win and it will be intriguing to see how each of them goes about it. BG
• Tan puts Mackay's success down to luck, hits out at press
• Adebayor stuns Dnipro in comeback Europa League win
8) The race for 12th intensifies at Villa Park
The contest for 12th place is the hottest in the Premier League at the moment, three teams having taken 28 points from their 27 games, all of them with seven wins, seven draws and fully 13 defeats. All three play at 4.30pm on Sunday, and two face each other at Villa Park. "It'll be very, very weird. It will be a strange game," says Grant Holt, although his emotions have been stirred less by a fleeting statistical coincidence and more by a first reunion with a side he played for with such distinction before a short-lived move to Wigan last summer, though he may well watch the entire strange game from the bench, as he has Aston Villa's last two matches. Holt scored eight league goals for Norwich last season and 15 the year before that, a standard of prolificness that might not be particularly earth-shattering but remains a distant dream to those now attempting to fill his shirt – Gary Hooper has so far mustered five and the next most prolific member of Chris Hughton's notoriously somnambulant frontline is Ricky van Wolfswinkel on one. Holt, meanwhile, scored his second and, thus far, final goal of this league season in August. It could be that Holt now is to Norwich precisely what Norwich are to Holt: a reminder of thrilling highs that are now very much in the past. SB
9) A fitting time to return for Aluko
When Hull won 3-2 at St James's Park in September, having twice been behind, their victory was secured by a stunning volleyed winner from Sone Aluko, which sent Steve Bruce into an involuntary and somewhat humiliating touchline dance. "I think he could light up the Premier League this year," Bruce later said of the goalscorer. "If he stays fit and healthy, then I think we've got a really good player on our hands." He didn't, however, stay fit and healthy. A few weeks later Aluko suffered an achilles injury at Everton, and he has not started a league game since, an absence from the first XI now well into a fifth month. In recent weeks though he has been tentatively edging his way back to fitness with a series of brief substitute appearances, and he started both FA Cup fifth-round matches against Brighton. But this weekend's visit of Newcastle represents a fitting moment for the Nigerian, who turned 25 10 days ago, to return to the league side. Hull have got by pretty well without him – he got a good reminder of that from the Cardiff bench last week, watching his side win 4-0 in the only match since his return to some semblance of fitness in which he has played no part – but Aluko had been one of their most impressive players in the opening weeks of the season, and could belatedly make good on Bruce's bullish predictions as the campaign winds towards its conclusion. SB
• Newcastle make profit for third year in a row
• Pardew hopes victory will ease 'miserable' media pressure
10) Suddenly smiley without Carroll, sad without Jelavic
Funny how things work out. West Ham spent most of this season pining for the return of Andy Carroll, convinced that his reintegration to the team would solve their goalscoring problems and extricate them from trouble. Yet almost as soon as he came back he was sidelined again because of Swansea defender's Chico Flores' freakishly fragile face … and that's when West Ham embarked on their strongest run of the season. Now, after four wins in a row, they are safe and they go to Everton with the home side suddenly looking like the team who could do with Carroll. Or with Nikica Jelavic, whom they sold in January. Funny how things work out. PD
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